Tuesday, October 28, 2008

"Analysis": Why Do I Sense a "Climax" Coming?

Like I said, its just "a sense". There is the kind of breathless quality to the introduction in the video clip, "Alarming news from Somalia...", the repetition in the press about how the Russians have gotten permission from the Somali authorities (for what that's worth) for entering Somali waters, how whatever actions the Russians will take are in accordance with UN resolutions (whatever they are), the repeated assertions in the Russian press dating back to earlier this spring about how the Russians are going to do "something" about piracy and finally the arrival of the Neustrashimyy with the orders to use deadly force if necessary. To me, it seems like they have blustered so much that to arrive off the Horn of Africa and do nothing would be very anti-climactic.

This is a critical period for the Russian Navy - their surface fleet is aging with no replacements in sight. The Commander of the Pacific Fleet promised that the next carrier will go to the Pacific, yet there is no keel laid, the only shipyard in the former Soviet Union with experience building a large deck carrier is in Ukraine and Sevmash seems to be making a botch of the Gorshkov refurbishment (or, depending on your point of view, milking it for all its worth). The newest SSN looks like its going to India and the new Boreys are coming out without a proper weapon, properly tested (the Bulava). It seems to me that the Navy needs a "win" to compete for rubles right about now so that they can build the carriers, the surface fleet and submarines they want.

Like I said - its a good narrative and good publicity for the Navy to take care of business.

Doesn't mean I'm right about it. We'll find out before it snows here in Northern Virginia.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Okay. Thanks. I told you about my sense, you told me about yours. I appreciate it.

And you're right. NEUSTRASHIMY's heralded saunter from the Baltic Fleet to the Gulf of Aden seems like an awfully long walk on the ramp without some fashion to dazzle fans back home. She can't possibly do...nothing.

Here's a wholly unrelated note you might find of interest, from WRAL-TV 28 OCT in Raleigh, NC: “Artifacts from the wreckage of a sailing vessel believed to have been the pirate Blackbeard's flagship suggest the crew left in a hurry, but the reasons aren't clear, the director of a recovery project said Tuesday.... ‘They were in a hurry.’”

V/R

Tom

Z said...

hmm, but considering Russian security forces past record in anti-terrorism, doing something could be far worse.

Anonymous said...

Hey bud, what's Russian for 'narrative' and 'publicity'. I don't think those are Russian concepts. Go back to kindergarten.

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